ECONOMICS · PUBLIC POLICY · SIMULATION · AI
What an AI shock costs the UK depends on who bears it: displacing 7% of employees costs the Exchequer £17.7bn a year and raises poverty by 1.87 points — and changing who is displaced swings that cost from £13.9bn to £32.8bn.
with Max Ghenis (PolicyEngine)
Replacing council tax — still assessed on 1991 valuations and sharply regressive — with a revenue-neutral 0.79% land value tax leaves two thirds of UK households better off, with the burden organised by wealth rather than income.
with Seyed M. Hosseini (Harvard University)
Public R&D spillovers raise productivity roughly four times more in manufacturing than in services — so the shift to services has about halved aggregate productivity growth, and optimal policy should steer R&D by spillover absorption.
An open firm-level microsimulation, built entirely from public ONS and HMRC aggregates, for transparent costing of UK VAT registration-threshold reforms — including the notch's £21,250-wide dominated region.
with Max Ghenis, Nikhil Woodruff, Pavel Makarchuk, Anthony Volk (PolicyEngine)
An open-source Python package encoding UK and US tax and benefit rules as code, so researchers can estimate how reforms reshape incomes, poverty, and inequality with reproducible computations.